Value

Quantifying the value is difficult since the opportunity cost of making a suboptimal decision can hardly be calculated.

Example

The football club LA Galaxy signs Player A for $2M and sells him a year later for $2.2M. On paper, this is a success, generating a $200K profit. However, with access to better information, the club could have signed a player who was a stronger fit and could have been sold for $3M, implying an additional $800K in unrealized value.

The same principle applies beyond transfers. A poor hiring decision doesn’t just incur direct financial gains. It also impacts team dynamics and company culture, effects that are far harder to quantify.

Evaluation

To evaluate the true impact of opportunity markets, the most practical approach is to integrate them into existing workflows and compare outcomes over time. Their value rests on a simple premise: the quality of a decision is driven less by the individual making it and more by the quality of information available to them. By introducing a new layer of high-signal, incentive-driven data, Opportunity Markets can significantly improve decision quality.